With the credit crunch wreaking havoc on the global economy certain governments throughout the world have stepped in with bail out plans involving the injection of money into their individual banking systems. The reason behind this is to stave off the bad or `toxic? debt which they see as crippling to their countries' economies due to unstable institutions and negligible public borrowing.
So the big question is will injecting this money actually get the banks lending again and if they do, will it have any effect on us, the general public. In answering this question and dealing with the issues here I can only comment on our particular situation here in the United Kingdom. Whilst it may be similar in other parts of the world I cannot comment due to the fact that I am unfamiliar as to how their market works, so what may have an effect here may not be the case anywhere else.
The general public is under the impression that the credit crunch is due to the banks not having enough money to lend. Logic would then dictate that by giving the banks more money the problem is resolved. Unfortunately this is rather far from the truth. The lack of money to lend is only the tip of the iceberg. Banks have been burned by the bad debt accrued over the last few years and are therefore now much more cautious about lending again. Their careless actions in the past will prove much more difficult to rectify in times to come.
The main result and contributory factor to the current financial predicament is that of house prices, and house prices are not only falling but are set to continue to fall for the foreseeable future. Consequently lenders are finding that they have to tighten all their criteria not least in the area of loan to value LTV, that is the amount of money that is lent based on the value of the property. Most lenders during 2007 lent up to 95% LTV some lent 100% LTV and in some cases they went as high as 125%LTV.
While the market is buoyant most annalists will agree this type of lending is OK. Think about it if you lend on a 100,000 house 125% which results in a loan of 125,000 and the house price rises over the next three years at a rate of 10% per annum, which was not unheard of. Then your LTV in three years time would only be 93% this is alright from a lending point of view and what would be considered an acceptable risk.
However house prices are not rising by 10% per annum in fact they are falling by at least 10% and some people think that these falls will be worse. So with that in mind if you now lend to someone 85,000 on a 100,000 house in three years your loan could be as high as 118% LTV. This as I am sure you will agree unacceptable lending in this climate. This therefore clearly explains why lenders are unwilling to lend over 90% LTV and in some cases 85%.
So what does the future hold for the market and will the bailout be the solution to the problem. Well I can only give my own personal professional opinion and nothing is set in stone but realistically I would perceive the bailout as having very little effect. They simply cannot lend at the high loan to values even though they have been committed in 2009 to lend at the levels reached in 2007. You see the majority of loans being agreed at present are dealing with people coming out of rates that had been pre-arranged over the last 5 years. Due to the downward spiral of house prices these people are going to be pushing the LTV up.
In addition you will also have to factor in the situation that a lot of people over the last five years have obtained self certification mortgages. Most of these mortgages are now not available due to the fact that they represent too much of a risk for the lenders, and if they are available they will be at much reduced LTVs, so what are these people going to do?
Don?t get me wrong, I am all for the government trying to give the economy a much needed boost, but I just think that the institutions will be unwilling to take the risk on loans at the 2007 and before levels. They will most probably stockpile for the future. This will mean that house prices will continue to spiral downwards due to the LTV not being at a suitable level and the banks will be even more cautious about the type of loans on offer and also the vetting process. It really is a difficult situation and I think that the only way around it if for one of the institutions to bite the bullet and take a calculated risk with regards to their lending.
Article Source: http://www.alltopinfo.com
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